Google's (Linux based) Chrome ready to shine?

It's been a week now since Google demonstrated its Chrome operating system and a good time to consider whether Google's latest product has the legs to unseat Microsoft's Windows. Of course, when it comes to Google, it's hard to imagine how it could fail. Remember the muffled laughter when Google said it was going to build a mobile phone operating system? Most commentators thought it ludicrous that a company such as Google wanted to suddenly enter the mobile market and challenge the status quo. Now analysts such as Gartner are predicting that Android will be the second most popular operating system within the next two years. Perhaps we shouldn't be too flippant about Google's plans to challenge the desktop operating system market.

Having said that, there are some key differences between rolling out a mobile phone operating system and a desktop one. One of those is that mobile phone users don't really care about the operating system on their phone. They're just interested in what the phone does and whether it does it well. In fact, most mobile phone users probably don't even see the features of the phone as being a function of the operating system but rather of the hardware they use. On the desktop it is a different story altogether. Users care more than they would probably like to about which operating system they run. Having a good piece of hardware is only as good as the operating system it is running. So, what chance is their that Google's Chrome IS can break into the desktop market?

According to Google's recent demonstration of Chrome OS, the system is a Linux-based, cloud-focused operating system that seems likely to be more at home on ultra-small netbooks than on high-end desktop PCs. Essentially Google is re-visiting the idea of thin clients, except that in Chrome's case users will store their data online, on Google's servers of course. Not everyone is going to be happy handing over their data to Google, no matter what Google says about not being evil, but many will. The one downside of storing all your data online is that access to it is broadband-dependent. Not having a decent Internet connection when you need a crucial document is not a situation any of us wants to be in. On the other hand, online data means that information can be accessed from practically any device, be it a mobile phone, desktop PC or a netbook.

The Linux millstone

Microsoft is not going to take Google's entry into the operating system market lightly. Initially the Redmond software giant will no doubt talk of how it welcomes competition and how much it wants to work with Google on this. And then, shortly after, the FUD - fear, uncertainty, doubt - propaganda will begin. The most obvious line of attack will be to repeatedly point out that Google's Chrome OS is just Linux in disguise.

Microsoft's experience in the netbook market has shown that users are indeed put off by the Linux tag and ultimately prefer to stick with something that they know. When the first netbooks were released most ran their own version of Linux. Microsoft had completely missed the boat and was phasing out XP while Vista was much to cumbersome for the lightweight netbooks. The result was that Linux netbook sales spiked for the first few months. But, soon enough, Microsoft shelved plans to scrap XP and quickly arranged for almost all netbook makers to offer a Windows version. The result: Linux netbook sales dropped and Windows ones took over the mantle.

It's the same on desktop PCs. No matter how good Linux is as a desktop operating system Windows' barrier to entry is far lower. It's only the hardcore that insist on running Linux desktops. Which, ironically, makes Linux a very powerful tool in Microsoft's arsenal against Google. If it can label Google Chrome OS as "Linux" then most users are likely to be put off.

Chrome OS won't kill Windows but it may create a new category of user. Over the years Windows has faced countless attempts to unseat it as the dominant software maker. Everyone from Apple to Linux to IBM have tried their level best to knock Microsoft down, with no luck. Grabbing a majority share of the desktop software market will take enormous effort, too much even for Google. Rather it will most likely have to settle for a niche share of the market, just like Apple and Linux have had to do. But what it will probably do is create a new class of user.

Chrome OS will run on the more affordable ARM-based PCs, which Windows doesn't. Which potentially means that instead of playing head-to-head with Microsoft, Chrome OS will be a low-cost alternative PC for users that don't require high-end applications but just something that is small, fast and affordable. Perhaps it will find a home in the developing world ... except that the online connectivity requirements will be a major stumbling block.

Only a fool would bet against Google's ability to turn almost everything it touches into gold but Chrome OS has a number of big obstacles to overcome if it is to become a major player in the operating system market. Only time will tell.

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